Over the last 12 months, apartment market occupancy has decreased by 1% across the board. That tracks with what we are seeing in the market: demand is down, and, along with it, rents are down -3.2% from Q2 to Q4 of 2025. Rents got hit harder than originally projected by Costar. A lot of that is getting affected by the influx of inventory by the Jackstraw, which you can see in the daily vacancy report that when Jackstraw came online on October 25’, vacancy jumped from 6.3% to 10.4%(double the vacancy effect that was projected). This influx of units (Jackstraw representing 5% of total inventory) on the market has slowed leasing, as evidenced by a slower-than-expected leasing process at The RidgeLine Apartments. We will go through some of the Jackstraw data to better understand what is going on there, and another bright spot we are seeing in the market.
JACKSTRAW
The Jackstraw came online in mid-October of 2025. As of this writing, according to Costar, only 21.7% of the building is currently occupied. That translates to 6.15% of the building (19.2 units) being leased per month. At that rate, it will take them about 13 more months to fill the building. Which tracks with what costar is projecting the market can absorb during that timeframe.
Based on our conversation with the leasing agent, they are hoping to fill it by the end of the summer. The only way we see that happening is by lowering rents significantly, along with the 16.7% in concessions they are already giving, with up to 8 weeks of free rent. Which tracks because the Jackstraw average rent is $2547, and the average at the closest competitors is $2,322 for The Current and $1903 for The Hixon. They would need to lease 35 units a month to fill it by the end of the summer. Meaning they need almost double the rate they are currently leasing. Luckily, in 2026, there are no scheduled deliveries of newly constructed units, allowing the Jackstraw units to be absorbed. Hopefully, the Jackstraw will be mostly absorbed by 2027, stabilizing the market and pushing rents up again.
3 Bed Home Rentals in 97702
3-bed homes in 97702, the zip code where we rent most houses for clients, have increased in rent by 2.2% in the last year. We recently rented a 3-bed home in this area in 3 days. 3-bed homes that work well for families and are priced right are generally leased in under 6 days at RidgeLine Property Management. Good homes in ideal locations have high demand from new families or people seeking more space. It has been fun renting these homes to people excited about them.
Bringing it together
Luckily, Single-Family Homes with the right attributes in good areas are still in high demand and renting quickly. Apartments with an influx of new inventory from properties like the Jackstraw are seeing rents decline. Rents for apartments will take a hit, as seen below, most of 2026, and begin to stabilize into rent increases again in Q4 2026, into 2027, and beyond.
What we are seeing is healthy for the market as demand catches up to supply. In the long term, we are optimistic that the Bend will continue to experience healthy rental growth, at least keeping up with inflation, if not exceeding it. We will be closing watching how the market performs in 2026.